Three weeks, three reports: North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia

What we're watching for in each state this election

Oct 17, 2024

Three weeks to go and three state election administration reports to highlight.

Today, we’re sharing our 2024 Election Administration reports for North Carolina and Ohio, as well as an update to our 2023 Virginia report with the latest information. Scroll down to read about what’s happening in each state.

As always, we’re available for questions and feedback — don’t hesitate to reach out to info@informingdemocracy.org.

North Carolina 2024 Vote Counting and Certification Report

Before we dive into North Carolina’s Election Administration report, we want to take a moment to say that our thoughts are with the North Carolinians who are still working through the response and recovery to Hurricane Helene. We know what a physically taxing and emotionally draining experience this has been for everyone in western North Carolina.

We’ll continue to monitor any changes brought on by Helene’s impact on post-vote administration and update our research materials as necessary. As always, our team is available to help support you with any questions you might have; don’t hesitate to reach out.

Keeping North Carolina in our hearts.

North Carolina Report | One-Pager Summary | Google Calendar of Key Dates

The administration of elections in North Carolina falls under the leadership of the State Board of Elections, which has decision-making and oversight authority on election processes. However, underlying control sits with the Governor, who has the power to appoint the State Board of Elections, as well as the chair of each County Board of Elections. If the governorship were to be held by an anti-democracy actor, this could have drastic ramifications in all areas of election administration. There are no such concerns with the current Governor, who is strongly pro-democracy.

Read further about the roles of these officials and offices here.

In response to the dire situation created by Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina, the State Board of Elections has approved emergency measures to ensure voter access throughout affected counties. So far, those provisions do not appear to affect the overall timing of vote counting or certification processes, though affected counties have been granted the power to reschedule mandatory meetings to begin reviewing absentee ballots.

The State Board may continue to enact emergency measures, and we will continue to update if such measures affect the vote counting and certification process.

On the local level, the County Boards of Elections — which are unelected partisan bodies — have a lot of duties that, in other states, would be held solely by professional election staff and/or by elected officials. This structure creates potential vulnerabilities unique to the state of North Carolina. A minority of a County Board of Elections, acting in bad faith, could cause unnecessary delays in several election duties.

We reviewed members of the 100 County Boards of Elections to assess who could pose a threat to free and fair elections. Of 498 officials reviewed, 51 had concerning findings in their background, about 10 percent. Among these findings were anti-democracy activities and support for election subversion.

Read a full analysis of these findings, including notable counties of concern, here. See the full database of election officials here.

Outside of the power of the executive, we are tracking additional potential vulnerabilities, like delay tactics related to contests, protests, and recounts that could be exploited by bad actors in an attempt to delay the results of the election. We are confident that current protections in the system can stand up to these subversion attempts.

Read a full analysis of potential vulnerabilities here. For a full timeline of expected post-vote processes, see our calendar here, or subscribe to our Google Calendar to stay aware of key dates and deadlines.

Ohio 2024 Vote Counting and Certification Report

Ohio Report | One-Pager Summary | Google Calendar of Key Dates in Ohio

Ohio is home to some of the most vocal election deniers in the country at the federal level, helping fuel the nationwide movement to undermine faith in our elections (see: Jim Jordan and JD Vance). At the state level, while some state officials have shown a willingness to cave to pressure from election deniers, most of Ohio’s election administrators are dedicated public servants.

Elections in Ohio are primarily administered by Boards of Elections in each of the state’s 88 counties. Unlike many other states, Ohio does not have an agency or board responsible for statewide elections. Instead, that role is played by the Secretary of State.

Read more about the role of election officials in Ohio here.

State election law in Ohio is strong — state statute clearly outlines election processes, and the Secretary of State issues additional binding directives. For that reason, where there are vulnerabilities, they are created and sustained by bad-faith actors attempting to circumvent the law.

See our database of election officials where we reviewed 528 County Board of Elections Directors, Deputy Directors, and members to identify officials who could pose a threat to free and fair elections. Our analysis of this research can be found here, including the counties of concern we’re watching.

We are also monitoring certification in Ohio. Certification is a non-discretionary, ministerial duty under a plain reading of Ohio statutes governing these processes and state case law. This suggests there is little discretion left to election officials in carrying out their duties. If an election official fails to comply with state election law, the Secretary of State is required to step in and compel compliance.

You can track these and other vulnerabilities in our analysis here.

Virginia 2024 Vote Counting and Certification Report

Virginia Report | One-Pager Summary | Google Calendar of Key Dates

Election administration in Virginia is largely well-run, with detailed and regulated statutes at the city, county, and state levels. The statute and regulations put in place by the State Board of Elections leave limited discretion in the hands of local Electoral Boards, General Registrars, and election staff. Additionally, there are strong protections in Virginia law, including the power of the State Board to remove local officials for a failure to discharge their duties. This makes it unlikely that even election deniers or subverters serving in an official role could fully undermine a Virginia election. The system would be more vulnerable should the State Board itself be made up of a majority of election deniers. However, we don’t believe that is currently the case and do believe that Virginia’s strong laws would likely still trump and ensure the will of the voters is upheld.

Therefore, election-denying officials will need to be closely watched to ensure that any bad actors do not undermine the will of Virginia’s voters.

This update of our 2023 report identifies potential vulnerabilities to monitor, including:

Anti-democracy activity among election administrators identified before the 2023 elections
The power of the State Board of Elections
Concerns regarding efforts to block or slow down certification or state canvass
Variations in local practice for processes like absentee ballot processing

Read a full analysis of these potential concerns here and dive into the database of the election officials researched in 2023 to identify potential threats to free and fair elections. You can also track a timeline of post-vote processes, or subscribe to this Google Calendar of key dates.

Election Administration Reports, Summary One-Pagers, and Google Calendars

You can access all of our other state reports, one-pagers, and Google calendars here, as well as through the links below:

If you're a reporter with questions about the upcoming elections across any of these states or want to schedule a briefing with your newsroom, please email Ryan Thomas at ryan@zpstrategies.com.

Informing Democracy