What we’re watching for in 2025

Five areas on our radar coming out of this election cycle

Dec 10, 2024

The 2024 election cycle is now at a close. Except for a handful of local races that are still subject to recounts, states have finished certifying and are now concluding the final steps of the post-vote process, including final audits in places like Ohio and Michigan. States are issuing certificates of ascertainment, with presidential electors set to meet on December 17.

As we reflect on this election cycle and its outcomes, there are several critical themes on our radar as we look ahead to 2025 and beyond. These themes include the current state of election denialism, attempts to change state and federal election law, and the public discourse around elections. We believe these are the critical issues at the fore — and the issues we’ll explore in more depth in the new year.

We’re also eager to hear what’s on your mind. As allies and frontline partners in protecting our democracy, what themes, patterns, or concerns are you tracking as we head into the new year? You can reply directly to this email with your thoughts, or share your ideas in this Google form. We look forward to reading your responses.

Theme 1: The State of Election Denial

The 2024 election showed that election deniers’ efforts are motivated by election outcomes, not the actual administration of elections: they trusted the system when their preferred candidates won and sowed doubt when they lost. Election deniers laid the groundwork to challenge the 2024 election results; while these claims evaporated at the presidential level when the race was called, the movement pivoted to challenging the validity of down-ballot races.

Attacks largely focused on states with split-ticket voting like Wisconsin and Arizona, as well as states that were slower to count all of their ballots, particularly Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and California. Normal election processes were weaponized into conspiracies, like in the case of Wisconsin Senate candidate Eric Hovde, who called election fairness into question.

Washoe County, NV was one of the few notable instances of process disruptions by election officials this year: one County Commissioner voted against certifying this year’s election results and another recused himself after spreading conspiracies. However, the actions of some officials have indicated this challenge of election denial is not over. Newly-elected Antrim County, MI, Clerk Victoria Bishop campaigned on her desire to illegally hand-count tabulated ballots. When asked by a reporter if she was afraid to be removed, her spokesperson said, “Bring it.” Fulton County, GA Board of Registration and Election member Julie Adams, despite voting to certify the election, continued to baselessly raise doubts about the election’s fairness and imply certification should not be ministerial. In Colorado, members of boards of canvass voted against certifying the results in seven counties. While these actions did not delay certification, it is another troubling sign of a growing willingness to subvert nonpartisan election administration.

We anticipate the election denial movement will continue to grow. President-elect Trump once again refused to concede that he lost the 2020 election over the weekend in an interview with NBC. In the same interview, Trump also claimed he wasn’t interested in launching an investigation into his false claims about the 2020 election. And yet, he announced nominees to lead the DOJ and FBI who previously helped further his stolen election claims and suggested they should “look at” jailing members of the House Select Committee that investigated the January 6th attack. Additionally, election denial adherents are already making plans to change election laws (read on!). The election denial movement is not dead; it has now returned to power.

Theme 2: Potential Changes to State Election Law

Just as we look back at lessons from 2024, so too are state officials and election administrators. As we begin the new year, state legislatures will be back in session, giving legislators the chance to weigh in on state election law. This activity will range from genuine efforts to learn from 2024 and improve or clarify the law, to more partisan efforts to attempt to consolidate power, like we are seeing in North Carolina to strip power away from the governor. Election deniers are also attempting to address ”problems” that exist only in conspiracies through “solutions” that could restrict voting access or make elections less secure, like requiring voters to provide proof of citizenship, restricting mail-in voting, eliminating drop boxes, and requiring hand counts.

One place we may see positive legislative efforts to improve the law is in Pennsylvania, where we may see further efforts to pass legislation to codify the certification requirements of the Electoral Count Reform Act (ECRA) or perhaps to fix the ambiguity in the current law on undated and mis-dated ballots that has been the focus of many court cases over the past three years.

In several swing states, there’s momentum to try to speed up the vote counting process. In Arizona, for example, there have been multiple suggestions for how to adjust the absentee ballot receipt process to try to speed up the count, including a proposal to limit where voters can drop off ballots close to Election Day, and a proposal to require ID to drop off ballots to eliminate the signature verification step in the process for late absentee ballots. Both of these solutions would likely speed up the counting time but would also further burden voters. Notably, ballot length is also a significant factor in the time it takes to finish counting. We are also starting to see movement in both Nevada and North Carolina to try to tighten or expedite counting by shortening the mail ballot return or cure windows.

In Georgia there are rumblings from a few state legislators about codifying in statute some of the rules the State Board (led by a majority of election deniers) illegally attempted to pass as regulations late in the 2024 election season.

Theme 3: Coming Attempts to Change Federal Election Law Provisions

Just as we are seeing growing activity from election deniers in state legislative and election administrative roles, we will have a Congress and federal executive in 2025 likely to be amenable to many of the issues championed by election deniers and other anti-democracy advocates.

For example, the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act — that Chip Roy has said was drafted in consultation with known election deniers Cleta Mitchel and Stephen Miller — is likely to make another appearance after failing to make its way through the Senate in 2024. More generally, election deniers are likely to lobby Congress for national voter ID laws, a rollback of the 90-day limit on voter registration purges, and tighter mail-in ballot deadlines including a national prohibition on receiving these ballots after Election Day — except for ballots from military and overseas voters.

Theme 4: The Public Discourse Around Elections

Regular and accurate reporting about our elections and election processes is a crucial part of a healthy democracy. That’s why media education about vote counting and certification was a key part of Informing Democracy’s mission in 2024. We believe this continues to be critical heading into 2025 and beyond.

In 2024, one area where we saw key improvements was in how many media outlets covered the vote counting process and helped voters better anticipate and understand why vote counting isn’t completed on Election Day.

Going into 2025, that kind of diligence and dedication to accuracy will be critical as the conversation moves into election policy, as both state and federal legislators put forward the kinds of major election law reforms we discussed above. These policy conversations can be more nuanced and less enticing than a major election, but their outcome could shape the future of how our elections are run for decades to come. Voters need to be properly educated on these topics through clear reporting and public discourse. Media attention will be critical to help ensure public debate is focused on addressing actual election challenges versus those driven by false claims and conspiracy.

Theme 5: Upcoming Elections

As we move into 2025, there will be more elections to come and it will continue to be critical for voters, democracy advocates, and reporters to be aware of who is administering those elections and the rule-books those administrators are using. That’s why we’re looking ahead at future elections and how these elections will shape research needs over the next two years.

Here’s a quick look at the coming elections in our target states in 2025 and beyond. Please note this list is not exhaustive.

April 2025

Florida special elections in for Congressional Districts 1 and 6
Wisconsin election for Supreme Court Justice, State School Superintendent, and local and judicial positions

May 2025

Texas local political subdivision elections

TBD 2025 (Likely Spring/Summer)

New York special election for Congressional District 21

November 2025

Statewide Elections
- New Jersey executives and legislature
- Virginia executives and legislature
- Pennsylvania Supreme Court (retention election, 3 of 7 seats)
Municipal/County Elections
- Florida
- Georgia
- Michigan
- North Carolina
- Ohio
- Pennsylvania
- Texas

November 2026

U.S. Senate Elections: Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio (special election), South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia
U.S. House Elections: Across all states.
Statewide Executive Elections: Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Wisconsin

Post-Vote Election Administration: Close-Out

All the states we are tracking have finished certifying the majority of races. Presidential electors are set to meet in each state and the District of Columbia as a part of the Electoral College on December 17. A few remaining recounts, run offs, and audits are ongoing or scheduled to happen in late December. Here are the state-by-state details of what remains of the 2024 general election vote counting and certification processes:

Arizona

Coconino and Pima Counties completed their respective recounts at the end of last week, reaffirming the previously certified results.
Maricopa County completed its recount of several races yesterday, Monday, December 9, also reaffirming the previously certified results.

Florida

The county Canvassing Boards will provide the Department of State with a report of the results from the Post-Election Voting System Audit no later than December 15.

Georgia

Counties certified the December 3 runoff election results yesterday, December 9.
If anyone is going to file a contest related to any of the runoffs, they must do so by Friday, December 13.
County Election Superintendents must submit the final reconciliation report for the runoff election to the Secretary of State’s office by January 2.
The Secretary of State will issue certificates of elections and commissions to members of the General Assembly on January 13.

Michigan

A hand recount was scheduled to begin yesterday, December 9, for the state House election in Battle Creek.
The audit process must be conducted by December 22 (within 30 days of the completion of the canvass, unless there is a recount ordered).

North Carolina

Partial hand recounts in the North Carolina Supreme Court election are mostly completed and are expected to be finalized today.
On Wednesday, December 11, the State Board of Elections will meet to consider election protests filed in the North Carolina Supreme Court election.

Ohio

The audit process must be conducted by December 11 (no later than 21 days after the Boards of Elections certify results).

Pennsylvania

On Monday, December 2, the Pennsylvania Department of State announced the successful completion of the risk-limiting audit and the 2% statistical audits in all counties, confirming the accuracy of the results.

Virginia

We will see recounts in the Roanoke Mayoral Race (on December 19), the Norfolk City Superward 7 council race (no date for the recount has been scheduled), and the Lovettsville Town Council term that expires in 2026 (the recount will begin at 9 a.m. on December 12). It is still possible we could see a recount in other races, as the deadline to petition for a recount in a multi-jurisdictional race that is within the 1% margin is December 16.

Wisconsin

On or before December 16, the Governor will deliver copies of the certificate of election to one of the presidential electors.

Informing Democracy